Where Are the Shepherds? Understanding the Pastoral Shortage in Our Churches
- Brent Madaris
- 2 hours ago
- 6 min read
A Quiet Alarm
Recently, I helped a church search for an assistant pastor with the clear intent of transition into the lead pastorate within three to five years. The need was real, the expectations were reasonable, and the opportunity was genuine. In an effort to cast a wide net, a single announcement was posted on multiple venues, including several well-known alumni platforms connected to conservative Bible colleges.
Within days, the posting received thousands of views and was even flagged as a “top-performing” listing. On just one of the sites, the post received over 5000 views.
And yet—not one bona fide, qualified pastoral candidate emerged.
That moment landed heavier than expected. It wasn’t frustration. It wasn’t discouragement. It was something quieter and more troubling: the realization that this was not an isolated incident. Conversations with pastors, deacons, and church leaders across regions confirm the same story—churches are searching, waiting, and praying, often for years, with little response.
An older advisor summarized it bluntly after hearing the details: “We are teetering on a crisis. Many churches are just surviving. And many are without pastors and can’t find one.”
This article is not written to criticize schools, conferences, or young men. Nor is it an attempt to sensationalize what faithful servants have long felt intuitively. It is written because a growing disconnect exists between the visible activity of ministry training and the quiet reality churches are facing on the ground.
The pastoral shortage facing many churches today is not simply a matter of raw numbers, but of endurance, placement, and the long-term faithfulness required to shepherd declining or struggling congregations.
Before assigning causes or offering remedies, we must first understand the scope of the issue. We need to ask, carefully and honestly: How many shepherds are actually being prepared—and is it enough?
The Pastoral Shortage: What the Numbers Actually Reveal
Concerns about calling, surrender, and preparation often remain theoretical until a harder question is asked: how many men are actually emerging who are even positioned to pastor churches?
Among Independent Baptist churches, most estimates place the number between 10,000 and 13,000 nationwide. If only 10 percent of those churches require pastoral replacement over the next decade—due to age, illness, burnout, or transition—that represents 1,000 to 1,300 pastors needed, without accounting for new church plants, revitalization efforts, or emergency vacancies.
To understand whether the current pipeline can sustain that need, actual graduation data matters. Now, although I realize that there are many preachers that will never darken the door of a modern Bible college, we are going to use data from Bible college graduations to help us contextualize and frame this matter.
I repeat, rather than relying on impressions or anecdotes, we will look briefly at documented graduation data. The following data summarizes 2025 graduates from two large, representative Independent Baptist institutions, counting only those degrees that would reasonably align with pastoral or local church leadership. These figures do not indicate placement, calling, or long-term endurance; they simply describe academic preparation. They are offered here not to criticize, but to clarify the scope of the present challenge.
Documented Pastoral-Track Graduates (2025)
Independent Baptist College 1
Total graduates: ~191
Degrees reasonably aligned with pastoral ministry:
Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Pastoral: 11
Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Local Church Leadership: 3
Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Missions: 8
Master of Ministry: 10
Master of Biblical Studies: 3
Master of Divinity: 1
Total pastoral-track graduates: 36
Independent Baptist College 2
Total graduates: ~900
Degrees reasonably aligned with pastoral or local church ministry:
Doctor of Ministry: 1
Master of Divinity: 12
Master of Ministry: 2
Bachelor of Arts – Pastoral Ministry: 16
Missions: 4
Bible (General Studies): 5
Youth Ministry: 11
Associate of Arts – Biblical Studies: 1
Bible Exposition: 7
Total pastoral-track graduates: 59
Combined Documented Total (Two Major Independent Baptist Institutions)
95 potential pastoral candidates (2025)
Even this number requires careful interpretation. These men are not guaranteed to pastor. Some will serve as assistants, missionaries, educators, or eventually leave ministry altogether. When historical early-ministry attrition—often approaching 40–50 percent within the first five years—is considered, the number of men who will still be shepherding churches a decade from now shrinks considerably.
Institution (Anonymized) | Degree Program | Number of Graduates |
Institution A | Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Pastoral | 11 |
Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Local Church Leadership | 3 | |
Bachelor of Biblical Studies – Missions | 8 | |
Master of Ministry | 10 | |
Master of Biblical Studies | 3 | |
Master of Divinity | 1 | |
Subtotal (Institution A) | 36 | |
Institution B | Doctor of Ministry | 1 |
Master of Divinity | 12 | |
Master of Ministry | 2 | |
Bachelor of Arts – Pastoral Ministry | 16 | |
Bachelor of Arts – Missions | 4 | |
Bible – General Studies | 5 | |
Youth Ministry | 11 | |
Associate of Arts – Biblical Studies | 1 | |
Bible Exposition | 7 | |
Subtotal (Institution B) | 59 | |
Combined Total | Pastoral-Track Graduates (2025) | 95 |
Even when interpreted generously, these numbers represent only a small fraction of the shepherds required to sustain existing churches, let alone strengthen them for the future.
Projecting the Broader IFB Landscape
These two colleges are obviously not the only Independent Baptist institutions, but they are representative in scale and mission.
When similar schools are added, a broader picture begins to form.
Based on:
known enrollment sizes,
typical graduation cohorts,
and comparable degree distributions,
A generous but realistic projection suggests that all IFB-aligned Bible colleges combined may be producing approximately:
200–300 pastoral-track graduates per year nationwide
That figure represents academic alignment, not actual placement, endurance, or long-term faithfulness.
If early attrition reduces that number by even 40 percent, the pool of men still in pastoral ministry five to ten years later may realistically fall closer to:
120–180 enduring pastors per year
When weighed against:
1,000–1,300 pulpits likely needing replacement,
ongoing church decline and revitalization needs,
and the absence of surplus shepherds waiting in the wings,
the concern becomes unavoidable.
This is not a short-term fluctuation. It is a structural deficit.
A Pastoral Word to Fellow Shepherds
Statistics can be misused, and many pastors rightly resist reducing ministry to numbers. That caution is warranted. The figures offered here are not predictive or authoritative; they are descriptive. They reflect documented graduation data and restrained projections—nothing more. Scripture, not spreadsheets, governs the church. Yet, careful observation can help us discern whether our current systems are helping to form shepherds who can faithfully bear the weight of ministry not merely for a season, but for decades...a lifetime.
Why This Matters
The issue before us is not whether God is still calling men—He is.
The question is whether our churches, colleges, and conferences are cultivating calls that are rooted, tested, and durable.
When the supply of prepared shepherds diminishes, churches do not remain neutral. Vacuums are filled—sometimes by pragmatism, sometimes by heterodoxy, sometimes by outside ideologies that are intentionally training, sending, and sustaining leaders.
What is at stake is not institutional survival, but gospel continuity.
What Happens When Shepherds Disappear
The concern before us is not hypothetical, and it is not driven by nostalgia. It is grounded in observable reality. Churches are aging. Faithful pastors are finishing their race. Others are stepping aside quietly, often worn down, and sometimes worn out. And far too often, there is no clear successor waiting in the wings.
Scripture teaches that Christ loves His church and gives shepherds for her good. Yet history also reminds us that when leadership vacuums form, they do not remain empty. Ideas, movements, and belief systems that are intentional about training, sending, and sustaining leaders move into the spaces left unattended.
What is not shepherded will eventually be shaped by something else.
The numbers presented in this article do not accuse. I do not want you to read them that way. Also, these numbers do not pretend to tell the whole story. But, they do raise an unavoidable question: are our current systems cultivating shepherds who are called deeply, prepared carefully, and supported long enough to endure?
This is not a call for panic, nor is it a call for pragmatism. It is a call for sobriety. For prayer. For thoughtful self-examination among churches, colleges, and conference platforms alike.
God is still calling men. That much has not changed. But calling must be recognized, tested, and fathered if it is to last. The future health of our churches depends not merely on how many men respond in a moment, but on how many are still faithfully standing decades later.
In a coming article, we will examine why so many young preachers struggle to endure—and how churches can help rather than hinder that endurance. For now, it is enough to acknowledge the weight of the moment.
When shepherds become scarce, the issue is never merely institutional. It is spiritual. And it deserves our most careful attention.
Stay tuned.
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