Church Closures - Why 15,000 Churches Could Close — and What We Can Do About It

When the pews grow quiet, the pulpit must grow clear.”

Revitalization begins when leaders ask hard questions about health, not just history.

By Brent Madaris, D.Min.

Founder and Director of Hometown Hope Ministries (a comprehensive independent Baptist church revitalization ministry) and Ministry Medicine International—telemedicine for ministry and ministry-related professionals.

A Wake-Up Call We Keep Hitting “Snooze” On

When headlines announce that as many as 15,000 churches are potentially closing in America this year, the numbers should drive us to prayer and reflection. Instead, the response in many circles has been to shrug, smile, or spin it into a positive narrative. Some voices are saying, “Well, some churches need to close,” as though the shuttering of congregations were merely market correction rather than a spiritual emergency.

This kind of optimism may sound victorious, but it misses the deeper truths. The hard reality is this: we are watching a decades-long decline in church health, leadership stability, and gospel witness, disguised by pockets of visible growth and celebrity-driven “momentum.”

The Numbers Don’t Lie - Church Closures

According to Axios, up to 15,000 churches could permanently close in 2025—a continuation of trends accelerated by the pandemic and demographic shifts (1). Pew Research confirms that only about 62% of Americans now identify as Christian, compared to 78% in 2007 (2).  Barna’s ongoing data shows that regular church attendance has declined in nearly every age bracket, even among evangelicals.

Research from Lifeway further indicates that more U.S. Protestant churches are closing than opening each year, a reversal of patterns seen in previous generations (3). This is not just a mainline problem—it’s a universal one. Churches in every tradition are feeling the strain.

Dont forget to read my article on "Are Independent Baptist Churches In Trouble?"

So What’s Really Going On?

The issue isn’t simply cultural hostility or generational apathy—it’s systemic. Here are six underlying realities driving the closures:

1. Demographic collapse and secularization.

   Christianity no longer carries the cultural default it once did. With fewer people identifying with any faith at all, the pool of potential churchgoers continues to shrink. This is particularly acute in younger generations where “religiously unaffiliated” now dominates survey categories (4).

2. Financial fragility.

   Smaller congregations often depend on aging donors and lack financial reserves. A 10% drop in attendance can lead to a 30% drop in giving. When fixed costs stay high, one tough year can sink a church that’s been faithful for decades.

3. Leadership burnout and pastoral turnover.

   A 2022 Barna study found that 42% of pastors seriously considered quitting full-time ministry due to stress, isolation, and political tension in their churches (5). The average pastor now stays in one church for only a few years, making long-term revitalization almost impossible.

4. Community migration and urban shift.

   Rural towns are emptying out while suburban and urban areas consolidate. Many churches that once stood at the heart of a thriving neighborhood are now stranded in depopulated regions with few replacements.

5. Shallow ministry philosophy.

   Many churches have been programmed to chase attendance over souls transformation and biblical ministry orientation. This consumer-driven mindset produces short bursts of “success” without spiritual stamina. When the event culture fades, so does the congregation.

6. Parental Dereliction of Duty and Home Collapse. See my article on this factor here.

Why the “Everything’s Great” Narrative Fails

You can always find success stories—and we should thank God for them. Some churches are indeed growing. Some are seeing Gen Z and Millennials come to Christ. But we deceive ourselves if we think those stories cancel the crisis.

Much of what we’re really witnessing is a reshuffling of the same people. Many churches grow because others close. (Read my article on "Are Megachurches Part of the Problem?"). Revival talk sounds noble, but without repentance and structural health, it’s just noise.

Saying “some churches need to close” may sound tough-minded, but it’s often a way of sidestepping responsibility. The biblical pattern is never to abandon the lampstand without first calling for repentance (Revelation 2:5).

We don’t need slogans about revival. We need reformation of heart, health, and holiness in the local church.

So What Can We Do About It?

The research is sobering—but not hopeless. Churches can recover. Here’s how:

1. Diagnose before you decide.

   Every church falls into one of four stages: retool, refocus, replant, or retire. Not every church should close—but every church should confront the truth about its health. Honest diagnosis is the first act of obedience. See the bottom of this article for a short quiz!

2. Recenter on the Word and prayer.

   Healthy churches don’t grow from gimmicks; they grow from grace. Revitalization starts when pulpits are purified, prayer meetings are restored, and God’s Word is central again.

3. Strengthen pastors, don’t isolate them.

   Pastoral health is church health. Denominations, networks, and lay leaders must invest in their shepherds—through sabbaticals, equipping, and shared leadership.

4. Merge, replant, or repurpose strategically.

   Some churches need new leadership and a new start, not a new building. Replanting or merging with a healthy congregation can bring renewed life to struggling communities.

5. Prioritize discipleship over attendance.

   True growth is measured not by crowds but by Christlikeness. Churches that disciple deeply tend to last, even if they don’t dazzle.

6. Model financial transparency and stewardship.

   Churches that handle money with integrity build trust and resilience. Leaders should teach biblical stewardship, not just preach generosity.

A Call to Real Revival

The wave of closures is not just a sociological story—it’s a spiritual one. God is purifying His Church, calling leaders to faithfulness, and shaking systems built on hype. But if we will return to the basics—truth, prayer, holiness, sacrifice and courage—there is hope for renewal.

We don’t need revival headlines; we need revival hearts.

And when that happens, 15,000 churches won’t close—they’ll come alive again.

Notes

1. Axios, “Thousands of Churches Expected to Close in 2025,” September 2025.

2. Pew Research Center, Religious Landscape Study, 2023.

3. Lifeway Research, “More Protestant Churches Closing Than Opening,” 2021.

4. Pew Research Center, “Religious Nones,” 2024.

5. Barna Group, “The State of Pastors,” 2022.

6 Diagnostic Questions for Church Leaders:

Is My Church Dying or Recovering?

By Brent Madaris, D.Min.

Founder and Director, Hometown Hope Ministries

1. Is Our Momentum Driven by Programs or Prayer?

A dying church measures progress by activity.

A recovering church measures progress by answered prayer.¹

“Except the LORD build the house, they labour in vain that build it.” (Ps. 127:1)

2. Do We Measure Success by Attendance or Transformation?

A dying church counts heads.

A recovering church counts changed hearts.²

“For what is our hope…are not even ye in the presence of our Lord Jesus Christ at his coming?” (1 Thess. 2:19)

3. Are We Protecting Tradition or Pursuing Truth?

A dying church fights to preserve comfort.

A recovering church fights to restore conviction.³

“Holding fast the faithful word as he hath been taught…” (Titus 1:9)

4. Are We Reacting to Culture or Reaching Into It?

A dying church hides behind the walls.

A recovering church steps into the world with holiness and hope.⁴

“Ye are the light of the world. A city that is set on an hill cannot be hid.” (Matt. 5:14)

5. Are We Pleasing Members or Maturing Disciples?

A dying church entertains.

A recovering church equips.⁵

“And he gave some, pastors and teachers; For the perfecting of the saints…” (Eph. 4:11–12)

6. Do We Have a Vision of Revival or a Memory of One?

A dying church reminisces about what God once did.

A recovering church repents and prepares for what God can still do.⁶

“Revive us again: that thy people may rejoice in thee.” (Ps. 85:6)

A Note to Pastors:

Every congregation has symptoms of both decay and renewal. The goal is not to diagnose despair—but to discern direction. True recovery begins when God’s people humble themselves, pray, and seek His face (2 Chron. 7:14).

Footnotes:

1. Acts 6:4 – The early church’s health flowed from its devotion to prayer and the Word.

2. Romans 12:2 – Spiritual renewal transforms individuals, not just crowds.

3. John 8:32 – Truth liberates; tradition can imprison.

4. Philippians 2:15–16 – Holding forth the Word in a crooked generation.

5. Colossians 1:28 – The goal of ministry is maturity, not maintenance.

6. Hosea 10:12 – Break up fallow ground; God still sends rain.

7. A Note on the “15,000 Church Closures” Figure

   
   
   
   

   NOTE- The estimate of 15,000 church closures refers specifically to churches in the United States and is based on projections from church researchers and consultants, including Thom Rainer. It reflects a broader trend of declining church participation in the U.S.—for example, the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian has dropped from 78% in 2007 to 62% today (Pew Research). Many closures involve mergers, name changes, or rebrandings, which makes exact counts difficult.

   
   

   A Note on Attendance vs. Church Closures

   
   

   Some reports suggest that church attendance is rising in certain areas. While that may be true for some congregations, overall trends still show a significant number of U.S. churches closing, merging, or rebranding. Attendance growth in a few locations does not negate the broader pattern of decline and the projected 15,000 closures. In other words, both can be happening at the same time: some churches grow, while many others close. The focus remains the same—faithfully sharing the Gospel and strengthening the local church.

   
   

   This number is intended to highlight the trend and urgency, not to scare or mislead. The main point remains: regardless of statistics, our priority is faithfully sharing the Gospel.

This is a note that was shared with me on a social media platform related to this article.

“I'll tell you what's going on in my neighborhood, three churches in my neighborhood (one Baptist and one Lutheran and one other) have been converted to mosques.

Two of those churches also stopped reaching out into the neighborhood decades ago, their congregations had lost the vision for the neighborhood where they were founded in and had moved to greener pastures where more afluent members had moved.

There are now more mosques in my neighborhood than there are churches. The remaining non-Islamic people in the area don't care, they haven't darkened a church door in decades. It's not just churches being converted, it's store fronts, strip malls, family diners and small factories. There are over a dozens of mosques. I can only count 2 Bible preaching church remaining and their membership is dwindling to only elderly people who occasionally bring their grandkids to church. It won't be long and these two churches will likely close their doors as well. And the neighborhood won't even notice because these remaining churches have lost their salt and light.”

Here is another note from a reader.

“Edifice worship, institutional protections by the "pillars," unaccountable leadership, baby Christians, etc. It is an epidemic. Not even addressing the warped, unbiblical approach to missions fashioned around "return on investment", the unbiblical dependent missions philosophy of many independent Baptist churches, and the "old-boy network."