Are Independent Baptist Churches in Trouble? A Call to Honesty, Hope, and Revitalization
- Brent Madaris
- Jun 27
- 6 min read
We don’t need another glowing report or glossy brochure—we need a reality check. Behind the pulpits and programs, beneath the polished social media posts, something is quietly crumbling. Attendance is thinning. Churches are closing. Entire regions of our country are Gospel deserts. And yet, many still speak as if everything is thriving.
Let’s be honest: Many Independent Baptist churches are in trouble.
Not everywhere. Not all at once. But undeniably, broadly, and steadily—we are losing ground.
If we keep pretending all is well, we won’t just lose buildings and attendance; we’ll forfeit, in significant ways, the very mission we claim to hold dear.
We’re losing ground. Quietly. Consistently. And if we don’t begin to speak plainly, honestly, and biblically about it, we will lose much more than just buildings—we’ll lose our ability to make real, lasting Gospel impact in the communities we've been called to reach. Please don't deny and dismiss this assessement. Read on! Do the math! Seek the mind and heart of God about this!
The Data Doesn’t Lie: Church Closures and Decline
We often hear that Independent Baptist churches are thriving, but there’s precious little numerical evidence to support that claim. And because we lack a centralized reporting structure, our decline is often anecdotal and invisible—until it becomes undeniable.
According to the 2022 BSALT Report:
In just 10 years, 301 Independent Baptist churches have closed.
31 states have seen a net loss of churches.
6 states lost more than 25 churches each.
Over 900 U.S. counties have no Independent, Fundamental, KJV-only, non-Calvinistic Baptist church.
70 cities with populations over 100,000 have no such church.
14 U.S. cities with populations over 200,000 have zero Independent Baptist presence.
In total, 2,914 U.S. cities with populations over 10,000 have no Independent Baptist church.
So how many Independent Baptist churches are there? That’s hard to say precisely.
BSALT mapped 10,006 qualifying churches (KJV-only, non-Calvinistic, traditional worship).
Clarence Sexton’s Baptist Friends Network and other estimates have placed the broader IFB count around 13,000–14,000, though many of those may not meet stricter criteria or may no longer exist.
After comparing BSALT’s rigorous data with broader estimates and factoring in closures, aging leadership, and generational attrition, a responsible, data-informed estimate would place the number of active Independent Baptist churches in the U.S. between 10,000 and 12,000.
That means losing 301 churches in 10 years equals a 2.5–3% decline—not counting churches that are technically open but no longer functioning meaningfully. At this rate, another 600–900 churches could disappear by 2040.
Even if we’re conservative, that’s one closure per week—every week for a decade.
For context, the national closure trend for all U.S. churches is estimated at 1–2% per year. While the Independent Baptist rate appears lower on paper—roughly 0.25–0.3% annually based on BSALT's 10-year data—this masks deeper concerns.
Closures are almost certainly undercounted, and unlike many groups,
Independent Baptists have no official statistical arm to truly measure church starts and closures. Not only that, but also...
The Independent Baptist world has no organized planting efforts to replace what’s lost. We must also consider,
The high number of aging or pastorless churches (have you ever tried to find a pastor for a church? Available pastors seem as rare as hens' teeth. There are just not that many young men that are answering the call these days. Add to that the fact that 50% of Bible College pastoral graduates will quit in the first five years after graduation and you can see the problem). And don't overlook this fact.
Many Independent Baptist churches are “functionally dead” but not officially closed
These facts makes even a small annual decline dangerously unsustainable.
COVID-19: The Great Accelerator
COVID-19 didn’t create our crisis. It exposed and accelerated it.
According to Lifeway Research:
1 in 5 churches in America considered closing for good during the pandemic.
Many churches lost 30% to 50% of regular attendance.
Small, rural churches and aging congregations—common traits of many Independent Baptist churches—were hit hardest.
In short, COVID revealed what many had refused to admit: we were already fragile. The pandemic didn’t invent our decline. It spotlighted it.
A Closer Look: California as a Case Study
Let’s take one of the most populous states in the country: California.
According to BSALT:
California lost 25 IFB churches in the last 10 years.
San Diego (population 1.38 million) has only 3 qualifying churches. Each would need to reach over 460,000 people annually to evangelize the city.
Irvine, Huntington Beach, Glendale, and Fontana—all with populations between 190,000–300,000—have no IFB churches at all.
This is not a minor gap. It’s a ministry vacuum.
A Comparison: Georgia as a Home Front Reality
Let’s bring this a bit closer to home. Georgia, a deeply churched state in the Bible Belt, has not escaped the trend.
According to BSALT:
Georgia lost 12 Independent Baptist churches over the last decade.
Some rural counties have no remaining doctrinally-sound IFB presence.
Church attendance across Georgia has dropped significantly. In my research, I noted a drop from 44% to 34% church attendance statewide, a shift that mirrors national disengagement trends.
While Georgia still has pockets of strong church presence, even the South is no longer immune to decline. We are witnessing a slow erosion of influence in areas once considered strongholds. The decline is no longer just a “coastal” or “urban” problem—it’s here too.
The Broader Problem: The "Storybook" Syndrome
Too many are living in what we’ve called the "Storybook Christianity" bubble:
When the storybook life becomes the standard, the real struggles of everyday ministry get edited out.
We see the polished reports, the glowing social media posts, the photos of packed auditoriums, full buses, and record offerings. But the reality for many is:
Declining attendance
A lack of young families
Dozens of pulpits vacant
Dry baptistries
And, yet, some people today, incredibly, are still trying to paint a rosy picture of ministry life. I am sure there are various reasons for this. Sometimes it is because,
They are trying to be the hero, or because...
They just do not have a clue what is really going on, or perhaps it is...
A defense mechanism designed to protect and insulate, protect and shield themselves and their following from the potentially discouraging reality.
But, may I say, we don’t need a better filter. We need a better foundation. We need a better focus. We need a better, more biblical philosophy!
What This Culture of Denial Does:
It discourages faithful pastors in small, struggling churches.
It dismisses the value of slow, steady growth.
It distorts expectations for those considering ministry.
Instead of feeling encouraged by this "fairy tale" presentation, many pastors feel like failures. Not because they are—but because they don’t fit the fictional mold that is being presented and promoted.
What Must Change?
We are not without hope. But we are out of time for denial.
We must tell the truth—candidly, lovingly, and publicly.
We must invest in revitalization—with real money, manpower, and mentoring.
We must prepare for dignified closure and reallocation—some churches will not recover, and their buildings and resources could serve new, Gospel-centered works.
We must plant boldly—not just where it's easy, but where there’s gospel famine.
We must raise up new leaders—with clarity, character, and conviction.
Revitalization doesn’t mean clinging to the past.
Revitalization means recommitting to the purpose.
Stop Looking for the Next Giant. Someone recently said, “We’re all just waiting for the next _______ _______ or _______ _______.” No, no, no! That kind of thinking reveals something deeper—we’re struggling, and we’re looking for a hero, maybe even wanting to be the hero! But that’s not what we need. It’s not only a dangerous form of idolatry, it’s a setup for discouragement. If that is the standard, most pastors will either exhaust themselves trying to measure up, or collapse under the weight of feeling like they never will. We must not be looking for the next hero, nor must our goal be to be the next hero. God is calling for faithful shepherds, willing to serve unnoticed, preach the truth, and love people well.
Final Thoughts: This is Our Moment
The Independent Baptist movement is not beyond hope. But neither are we immune to decline. We are at a defining moment.
The local church is still God’s plan. The Gospel still works. But our comfort zones don’t.
Let’s reject the fairy-tale narratives and embrace the faithful grind of real ministry. Let’s face our data—and our doctrine—with humility. Let’s labor not to impress, but to endure, and improve.
Why? Because what God is doing next might not be flashy. It might be a replant. A merger. A church closure that funds a new beginning.
But it will be holy, if we approach it with the mind and heart of Christ.
If we can recognize our need, then maybe—just maybe—God will meet us there with revival.
"Let us go into the next towns, that I may preach there also: for therefore came I forth." — Mark 1:38
References & Sources
BSALT Report (2022). "Mapping the Decline and Gaps in Independent Baptist Churches." Internal document based on doctrinally filtered, self-reported listings and public ministry data.
Clarence Sexton’s Baptist Friends Network. Estimated figures for total Independent Baptist churches: https://baptistfriends.org
Lifeway Research (2020–2021). COVID-19 impact studies on church attendance and closure: https://research.lifeway.com
Faith Communities Today (FACT) 2020 Survey. Median church attendance trends: https://faithcommunitiestoday.org
Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA). Regional church data and decline indicators: https://www.thearda.com
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