Paterson, New Jersey: A Microcosm of America’s Shifting Faiths
- Brent Madaris
- 3 days ago
- 24 min read
Brent Madaris, D.Min.
Author's Note - This article is a bit more complex and technical. Please read with care and meditate on the content. It is extrememly valuable material for the thoughtful reader. Thank you.
In recent months, Paterson, New Jersey has drawn national attention through headlines and social media commentary claiming the city has been “taken over” or “conquered” by Islam. Such claims, often fueled by inflammatory rhetoric and selective reporting, have generated more heat than light. While they may stir emotion, they rarely produce understanding—and they almost never help the Church respond faithfully.
This article seeks a different approach.
Rather than framing Paterson as a battleground in a culture or religious war, this study approaches the city as a missiological and ecclesiological case study—one that invites sober reflection rather than alarm. The question before us is not whether Islam has “conquered” Paterson, but how a city that once had a highly visible and active Christian witness has experienced gradual redistribution of its religious presence, and how other confident religious worldviews have expanded in response.
Paterson, NJ has experienced significant changes in church adherence and congregational patterns over the past several decades. This case study examines the factors behind these shifts and the lessons pastors can draw for gospel-centered ministry. Paterson is not unique. Similar patterns can be observed in cities and regions across the United States—parts of Michigan, Florida, Texas, and the Northeast—where Christian institutions have redistributed or reorganized, and alternative belief systems have grown in both confidence and public influence. Hence the title: Paterson, New Jersey: A Microcosm of America’s Shifting Faiths. Paterson provides a particularly clear and historically traceable example.
There is also a personal and historical dimension that makes Paterson worth examining. Early in his ministry, Clarence Sexton pastored in this city, representing a generation of young men willing to labor in difficult urban fields with great vision, even where promise of ease or recognition was slim. His presence reminds us that Paterson was once seen not as a place to abandon, but as a mission field worthy of faithful labor and enduring commitment.
This study does not argue for political panic, religious hostility, or cultural nostalgia. Nor does it portray Islam monolithically or treat Muslim communities as enemies. Rather, it contends that religious confidence tends to expand where gospel presence has receded, and that the Church must honestly reckon with its own redistribution and retrenchment before it can meaningfully address the results.
If Paterson teaches us anything, it is not that America is lost—but that spiritual vacuums are filled by confident alternatives when the Church withdraws.
Methodological Framework
A Case-Study Approach to Religious Change and Church Revitalization
This article employs a qualitative case-study methodology rooted in historical observation, ecclesiological analysis, and missiological reflection. The goal is not to provide an exhaustive sociological account of Paterson, New Jersey, but to examine it as a representative example of a broader pattern affecting many American cities.
The study proceeds using four primary lenses:
1. Paterson’s Historical Christian Footprint
Paterson once had a visible and active gospel presence, reflected in its churches, ministries, and pastoral leadership. This historical perspective is not meant to romanticize the past or imply Paterson was ever a “Christian city,” but to show that meaningful gospel witness existed and shaped public life. Key elements included:
Gospel-preaching churches across neighborhoods,
Evangelistic outreach in working-class and urban communities,
A mix of denominational and independent church institutions,
Pastors committed to long-term urban ministry, often enduring challenges with minimal recognition.
The data show that in 1980, Christian congregations in Passaic County had high average adherence per congregation, underscoring a period when local churches were numerically strong and publicly engaged.
2. Patterns of Decline and Redistribution
Over the subsequent decades, Christian presence shifted and, in some cases, diminished. ARDA data from 1980–2020 show that while the total number of Christian adherents grew slightly, adherence per congregation declined, reflecting:
Church closures, consolidations, and relocation of congregations to suburban areas,
Aging memberships without full generational replacement,
Decreased evangelistic intensity in some neighborhoods,
Broader patterns of conservative churches retrenching from challenging urban mission fields.
This process is cumulative, gradual, and multi-faceted. It is influenced by internal church factors—like declining local engagement—as well as broader societal changes. Christian numerical dominance remained, but the relative rate of growth lagged behind emerging religious groups in the county.
3. Emergence of Islam as a Public Religious Presence
From 2000 onward, Passaic County saw Islam grow as a confident, organized, and publicly visible religious community. While smaller in absolute numbers compared with Christians, ARDA data show that Muslim adherence per congregation increased rapidly, indicating strong organizational vitality. Key observations include:
Community formation and institutional development,
Civic engagement and political participation,
Public religious expression, such as mosques, cultural events, and educational programs,
Intergenerational continuity supporting consistent growth.
This trend illustrates a broader principle: when gospel presence recedes in a community, other religious worldviews often expand to fill the resulting spiritual vacuum. The focus here is not on competition or hostility, but on the importance of sustained gospel witness to maintain long-term spiritual influence.
Key Takeaways From The Above Three Sections
Passaic County illustrates both continuity and change: Christianity remained numerically dominant but per-congregation influence declined.
Other religions, particularly Islam and to a lesser extent Judaism, grew at a faster rate relative to their starting size, increasing the visibility of alternative faith communities.
The data demonstrate a spiritual principle for urban ministry: consistent, long-term gospel presence matters, because withdrawal—even gradual—creates a vacuum that is naturally filled by other worldviews.
These observations are descriptive rather than polemical. The purpose is not to praise or condemn Islam, but to acknowledge a basic missiological reality: religions that believe themselves to be true tend to seek visibility, continuity, and influence—especially where other belief systems have receded.
4. Revitalization Implications for the Church
Finally, the study draws pastoral and strategic conclusions for churches seeking to maintain or restore gospel presence in urban contexts. Key questions include:
What internal and structural factors contributed to the gradual reduction of visible gospel presence in cities like Paterson?
What lessons can be drawn from patterns of decline and growth for future urban ministry?
How should faithful congregations respond—not with fear, but with renewed commitment to presence, discipleship, and long-term mission?
The analysis emphasizes that urban revitalization is not achieved through reactive strategies or cultural confrontation, but through faithful, patient, incarnational ministry. Sustained local engagement, intentional discipleship, and generational continuity are essential for churches to maintain influence and counter spiritual vacuums.
By focusing on presence and perseverance, the Church can respond constructively to demographic and religious change, ensuring that the gospel remains visible, active, and effective even amid shifting spiritual landscapes.
Guiding Assumptions
This study operates under several guiding assumptions:
The gospel advances through faithful presence, not political dominance.
Cultural and religious vacuums are real and consequential.
Urban ministry is difficult but necessary.
Long-term decline requires long-term faithfulness, not quick fixes.
As Scripture reminds us:
“So then neither is he that planteth any thing, neither he that watereth; but God that giveth the increase.” (1 Corinthians 3:7)
The Church is called not to dominate the city or manipulate outcomes, but to remain faithfully in the field, planting, watering, and tending the gospel wherever it is possible. Its work is measured not by immediate success or by controlling circumstances, but by persistent presence, patient investment, and faithful obedience. Even when the harvest seems slow or the soil resistant, enduring engagement ensures that the message of Christ remains visible, accessible, and active for future generations.
Section I: Paterson, New Jersey — Historical Christian Presence and Church Decline
Paterson, New Jersey was not always viewed as a symbol of post-Christian urban transformation. For much of the twentieth century, it hosted a dense and visible Christian presence. Protestant churches—Baptist, Methodist, Presbyterian, and others—were embedded throughout neighborhoods, shaping aspects of community life and civic rhythms. Like many Northeastern industrial cities, Paterson reflected a pattern familiar across America: a meaningful gospel witness, if not unbroken dominance.
Cities do not secularize overnight, nor do alternative religious systems rise in a vacuum. What we observe in Paterson today is not primarily one faith “conquering” the city, but a gradual retreat of Christian presence over decades. Understanding that retreat requires looking backward with honesty rather than nostalgia.
Paterson, NJ: A City Shaped by Industry—and Churches
Paterson’s growth as a manufacturing center in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries drew waves of European immigrants who brought religious institutions alongside labor. Churches were planted near factories, neighborhoods formed around congregations, and ministry was local, embodied, and persistent.
By mid-century, Paterson was imperfect and ethnically complex, but spiritually active. Churches were central institutions, not peripheral ones. Yet broader forces—deindustrialization, suburbanization, economic decline, and demographic turnover—reduced the capacity and presence of many congregations. Some adapted, many did not, and others quietly disappeared.
A Moment of Evangelical Vitality
Clarence Sexton pastored Madison Avenue Baptist Church in Paterson during the latter half of the twentieth century. Contemporary accounts indicate numerical growth and active evangelism during his tenure, demonstrating that gospel witness persisted even amid urban decline.
His later move to Powell, Tennessee highlights a sobering reality: even earnest, effective pastoral labor cannot guarantee long-term stability of a city’s spiritual life. Cities are shaped by forces larger than any one man, church, or generation.
The Slow Retreat of Christian Presence
In subsequent decades, many historic churches closed or relocated. Others remained but with diminished capacity. Christian institutional presence weakened, creating space for other religious groups to grow. ARDA data shows that while Christianity remained numerically significant, Judaism and Islam increased at a faster rate relative to their initial size, particularly in the last two decades.
This is not conquest—it is the natural outcome when gospel presence declines. Religious vacuums do not remain empty.
A Revitalization Lens, Not a Reactionary One
Viewing Paterson through a revitalization lens reframes the conversation. The central question is not, “Who is gaining ground?” but, “Where and why did the gospel lose ground?”
Cities like Paterson force necessary reflection:
What happens when churches withdraw rather than adapt?
What happens when evangelism becomes episodic rather than embedded?
What happens when Christian presence fades from public life, education, and community formation?
The answers are visible in the data. Paterson is not unique. Similar patterns exist across Michigan, Texas, Florida, and the Northeast. Paterson provides a concentrated, historically traceable example of broader American trends.
Setting the Stage
This section is not meant to lament the past or assign blame. It establishes that a meaningful Christian presence once existed and weakened over time. The question for the Church today is that similar patterns are quietly unfolding elsewhere—and what can be done before retreat becomes irreversible.
Section II: The Religious Vacuum — Declining Christian Adherence and Emerging Faith Communities
When historic Christian presence recedes, it does not leave behind a neutral space. Religious, cultural, and ideological vacuums are inevitably filled. Paterson, New Jersey, provides a clear example of this principle at work—not through sudden upheaval, but through gradual, measurable change.
This section examines that transition through a demographic and religious lens, drawing on available data sources such as the Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA), U.S. Census trends, and well-documented patterns of urban transformation.
Documented Decline in Christian Adherence
According to ARDA’s longitudinal tracking of religious adherence in American cities and counties, older industrial centers in the Northeast have experienced a consistent decline in Protestant Christian participation over the past several decades. This decline is especially pronounced among:
Mainline Protestant denominations
Smaller evangelical congregations without institutional support
Urban churches unable to retain second- and third-generation families
While precise city-level figures vary by dataset and decade, the overall trend is clear: Christian institutional presence has diminished in both numerical strength and public visibility.
In Paterson, this decline coincided with:
Church closures and consolidations
Aging congregations
Reduced evangelistic footprint
The relocation of Christian families to suburban or exurban communities
Importantly, decline does not always look dramatic. More often, it appears as quiet attrition—fewer baptisms, fewer children, fewer workers, fewer resources.
These trends are consistent with county-level religious adherence data compiled by the Association of Religious Data Archives and summarized in the Data Appendix.¹
Demographic Change and Religious Diversification
As Christian adherence declined, Paterson’s population did not simply become secular. Instead, the city experienced significant religious diversification, driven largely by immigration patterns from the late twentieth century onward.
Census data and regional studies consistently show growth in populations originating from:
South Asia
The Middle East
North Africa
With these populations came established religious traditions, particularly Islam. Unlike many declining Christian congregations, these communities often arrived with:
Strong family cohesion
Clear religious identity
High participation rates
Intentional community-building practices
Mosques, Islamic centers, and faith-based community organizations emerged not because of conquest, but because there was available space—socially, institutionally, and spiritually.
Table A - Passaic County Religious Affiliations (Trend)
Year | Christians (total adherents) | Jews | Muslims |
1980 | 217,002 | 3,917 | — |
2000 | 241,033 | 17,000 | 22,410 |
2010 | 289,272 | 8,000 | 27,915 |
2020 | 313,781 | 9,188 (all Jewish combined) | 61,580 |
Note: Jewish totals in 2010 & 2020 combine denominational breakdowns.
Table B - National Religious Identification (% U.S. Adults)
Religion | 2007 | 2014 | 2023–24 |
Christian | 78% | 71% | 62% |
Jewish | ~2% | ~2% | 1.7% |
Muslim | ~0.4% | ~0.9% | 1.2% |
Immigration and religious affiliation patterns cited here reflect U.S. Census demographic data and ARDA county-level religious adherence estimates.²
Look at Table A above - At first glance, Christianity in Passaic County appears stable—or even growing—when measured by raw adherent numbers. However, raw totals can obscure deeper trends. To understand whether Christianity has actually expanded its influence, the data must be viewed in relation to population growth.
In Passaic County, Christian adherence increased in absolute numbers but did not accelerate relative to population growth. By contrast, Islam expanded rapidly on a per-congregation basis, reflecting a growth trajectory that exceeds both population growth and national averages.
Bottom-Line Analysis of the Two Charts
At first glance, the data appears encouraging.The number of Christian adherents in Passaic County increased substantially between 1980 and 2020. In raw numbers, there are far more people identifying as Christian today than there were forty years ago.
However, when the data is viewed in context, a more sobering reality emerges.
Passaic County’s population also grew significantly during this same period. When Christian growth is compared to overall population growth, Christianity did not expand its share of the community. Instead, it largely kept pace with population increase.
The relative religious growth chart reinforces this conclusion. While Christianity remained numerically dominant, other religious groups—particularly Islam and, to a lesser extent, Judaism—showed significant changes relative to their starting size. Islam grew rapidly in both membership and congregational presence, while the Jewish community experienced a notable increase in adherence per congregation due to consolidation of congregations rather than a surge in total population. Together, these trends indicate increasing religious diversity and a more dynamic religious landscape, even as Christianity’s numerical lead remained intact.
Taken together, the two charts reveal a crucial distinction: Christianity in Passaic County experienced numerical growth without proportional growth. There are more Christians, but Christianity does not represent a significantly larger portion of the population than it did decades ago.
The data (please see the addendum for more data/charts) suggests that without a significant shift in Christian engagement and outreach, Christianity’s numerical dominance will continue to erode over time, while faster-growing religious communities—particularly Islam—will command an increasing share of Passaic County’s population.
While Christianity continues to grow numerically, the most dramatic relative expansion belongs to Islam, whose adherent population more than doubled between 2000 and 2020. Jewish affiliation, meanwhile, reflects consolidation rather than expansion.
Vacuum Is Not the Same as Opposition
It is crucial to distinguish between active resistance to Christianity and passive replacement due to Christian retreat. The data overwhelmingly supports the latter explanation.
In Paterson:
Christian institutions weakened first
Civic-religious influence diminished
Public religious space became undefined
Into that undefined space stepped organized, motivated faith communities.
This pattern is not unique to Islam, nor to Paterson. Sociologists of religion have long observed that high-commitment belief systems tend to flourish where low-commitment systems fade. Where religious conviction weakens, stronger forms of belief—religious or ideological—gain traction.
Public Visibility and Civic Engagement
One of the most noticeable aspects of Paterson’s religious landscape today is the increased public visibility of non-Christian faith communities. Examples include:
Recognition of religious holidays in schools and public institutions
Dietary accommodations in school meal programs
Public events and festivals hosted or supported by municipal entities
These developments often draw attention, but from a structural perspective, they generally reflect:
Demographic representation within the city
Organizational capacity and civic participation
Sustained community advocacy
In other words, public visibility tends to follow sustained presence and engagement, not precede it.
As Christian congregations and institutions retreated from neighborhoods and civic participation declined, a leadership vacuum emerged—one that was increasingly filled by communities willing and able to navigate civic structures.
ARDA datasets show similar patterns in other urban counties across the United States, where changes in religious adherence correlate with shifts in public representation and institutional visibility.
A Revitalization Diagnosis - Considering both local and national statistics
From a church revitalization perspective, Paterson, New Jersey offers a sobering but necessary lesson: Cities rarely reject the gospel outright. More often, the church gradually retreats before secular or alternative religious forces rise to fill the void.
Paterson did not change because Christianity was outlawed, displaced, or actively opposed. It changed because Christian institutions slowly lost:
Population – declining membership and limited generational replacement
Influence – diminished role in neighborhoods, schools, and civic life
Confidence – decreased initiative in evangelism and public witness
Continuity – waning leadership succession and institutional stability
This perspective reframes the conversation. The concern is not who arrives later, but why a sustained gospel presence was not maintained. Understanding the causes of retreat—demographic, cultural, and internal to the church—provides the foundation for meaningful revitalization rather than reactionary alarm
Paterson as a Pattern, Not an Exception
What makes Paterson so instructive is not its uniqueness, but its representativeness. Similar trajectories can be documented—using ARDA and other datasets—in cities across:
Michigan
Texas
Florida
The Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
The names and faith traditions differ, but the sequence remains consistent:
Christian decline
Institutional retreat
Religious vacuum
Replacement by more cohesive belief systems
Paterson simply allows us to see the process clearly.
Section III: Lessons for Church Revitalization — Presence, Persistence, and Public Faith
If Paterson teaches us anything, it is that cities do not lose their Christian character because the gospel is weak, but because the church’s presence becomes thin, intermittent, or disconnected from everyday life. The decline documented in the previous sections was neither sudden nor inevitable. It unfolded slowly, quietly, and often without alarm, leaving a spiritual vacuum that other religious communities eventually filled.
For churches seeking revitalization today, Paterson offers not a call to panic, but a call to recover essential commitments.
Revitalization Thoughts Specifically targetd to Paterson, NJ
1. Revitalization Begins with Long-Term Presence
One of the most striking features of Paterson’s transformation is how gradual it was. Decades passed between the city’s peak Christian saturation and the current religious landscape, during which many churches adopted survival postures rather than mission postures.
Revitalization requires a fundamentally different mindset:
Staying, rather than retreating
Planting roots, not waiting for relocation
Ministering through decline, not only during growth
Faithful gospel presence over generations—not short-term success—is what anchors cities spiritually. Treating urban ministry as temporary or transitional signals the city that the gospel has receded.
2. Numerical Growth Is Not the Same as Cultural Stability
The data make this point clear: even during periods when individual congregations grew numerically, the overall Christian footprint of the city diminished relative to population growth and in comparison to emerging religious communities. A church may grow while the surrounding spiritual ecosystem continues to erode.
Pastors should note:
Attendance can rise while community engagement declines
Programs can expand while neighborhood trust erodes
Evangelistic events can multiply while everyday discipleship weakens
Revitalization is measured not just by numbers, but by sustained, embedded presence in the life of the city.
3. Public Faith Cannot Be Abandoned Without Consequence
As Christian institutions in Paterson retreated from civic engagement—schools, municipal boards, neighborhood organizations—the city did not become spiritually neutral. Instead, public religious space was redefined by groups willing and able to maintain consistent visibility.
Church revitalization must therefore recover:
Confident but charitable public witness
Engagement with civic leaders and institutions
Faith that is visible without being coercive
The gospel flourishes where believers are known publicly, not confined privately.
4. Strong Communities Replace Weak Ones
ARDA data show that groups with higher adherence per congregation and intergenerational continuity grew faster relative to their starting size. Paterson demonstrates the principle: high-commitment communities replace low-commitment ones.
Faith communities that emphasize:
Family formation
Regular participation
Clear identity
Intergenerational continuity
will naturally endure longer than those built around convenience, minimal expectation, or cultural Christianity. Revitalization must therefore involve stronger ecclesiology, not just better preaching or programming.
5. Revitalization Requires Theological Confidence
Where Christianity wanes, it is often preceded by uncertainty about doctrine, authority, and mission. The Paterson data show that, as adherence declined, the relative confidence and visibility of Christian witness also fell. Churches that lose clarity about the exclusivity, sufficiency, and transforming power of the gospel gradually diminish their cultural impact.
Lessons include:
The gospel must be proclaimed as true, not merely helpful
Discipleship must be intentional, not assumed
Faith must be taught, not outsourced to culture
Revitalization is theological before it is strategic.
6. Paterson Is a Mirror, Not an Outlier
Perhaps the most important insight is this: Paterson is not unique. Similar patterns are observable in cities across Michigan, Texas, Florida, and the Northeast. The charts illustrate a slow Christian retreat and the proportional growth of other faith communities—especially Islam and Judaism in relative terms.
The purpose of this case study is not to mourn Paterson, but to awaken the church elsewhere. What happened there can happen again wherever gospel presence becomes episodic, privatized, or optional.
Paterson’s transformation is not occurring because Christianity was forbidden, nor because alternative faiths were imposed. It occurred because sustained Christian presence is weakening over time.
That reality places responsibility squarely where it belongs—not on outsiders, but on the church itself.
The final question, then, is not what is happening to Paterson, but what must the church recover if it hopes to remain faithful in the cities of the future.
Thinking more broadly, let us consider this data in conjunction with national data and derive some principles that can guide revitaliation thinking.
Principles for Church Revitalization — Lessons from Paterson and National Trends Data
Principle 1 — Identity Stability Matters
Observation: Nationally, Christianity’s share of U.S. adults declined from ~78% to 62%, while Jewish populations remained small and stable (~2%), and Muslim populations slowly grew from 0.4% to 1.2%. In Passaic County, Christian adherents increased numerically, but relative to population growth, their share slightly declined.
Implication: Churches must cultivate a strong religious identity and sense of purpose, not just attendance. Stability of belief and practice is essential as broader society becomes increasingly unaffiliated or fluid in religious commitment.
Principle 2 — Institutions That Adapt Retain or Grow
Observation: Locally, non-denominational and Pentecostal churches show growth, while some historical mainline bodies contract. Islam’s growth in Passaic is both structural (immigration, births) and organizational (strong community engagement).
Implication: Churches that build intentional, intergenerational communities with clear mission and hospitality are more likely to thrive than those relying solely on legacy structures or routine programming.
Principle 3 — Retention Beats Attraction Alone
Observation: Pew data show religious switching is a major factor in Christian decline, and Jewish populations contract outside of Orthodox streams. Local retention of adherents is critical.
Implication: Revitalization must focus on discipleship, mentoring, small groups, and long-term community pathways, ensuring members are anchored in faith rather than simply recruited for attendance numbers.
Principle 4 — Demographics and Birthrates Shape the Future
Observation: Islamic populations in Passaic grew substantially over the past 20 years, reflecting both higher birthrates and a younger age profile than many Christian congregations.
Implication: Churches must invest in youth and family ministries. Stagnant demographics in older populations signal future decline if younger generations are not actively engaged.
Principle 5 — Competing for Meaning, Not Just Membership
Observation: Pew data highlight that a growing share of Americans believe in spiritual ideas without formal affiliation. Non-Christian groups with clear purpose and community maintain stronger retention.
Implication: Church revitalization cannot rely solely on programs or numbers. It must engage the deeper questions of identity, purpose, and relevance to retain and form committed followers.
Conclusion: Holding the Ground We Are Called to Keep
Paterson, New Jersey is not a prophecy. It is a case study.
Its story does not announce an inevitable future, nor does it demand panic. Instead, it offers the church something far more valuable: clarity. When examined carefully, Paterson reveals what happens when sustained Christian presence weakens over time—when churches withdraw, relocate, or lose confidence in their calling to remain embedded in the life of a city.
This is not a story of sudden loss, but of gradual erosion. The gospel is not defeated; it is slowly being displaced as Christian institutions thin and public witness fades. Other faith communities, possessing cohesion, conviction, and continuity, are stepping into the resulting vacuum. That is not conquest. It is consequence.
For the church, this reality demands sober reflection.
The Ground Was Not Taken—It Was Left
One of the most important lessons of Paterson is that spiritual ground is rarely seized by force. More often, it is relinquished quietly. Churches close. Families move. Discipleship weakens. Evangelism becomes occasional. Over time, absence becomes normal.
Yet Scripture never frames the church’s calling as temporary or conditional. The people of God are not instructed to remain only while influence is easy or results are visible. Faithfulness has always been measured by perseverance, not dominance.
We are called to hold ground, not because we are powerful, but because Christ is faithful.
Revitalization Is an Act of Stewardship
Revitalization, rightly understood, is not an attempt to reclaim cultural control. It is an act of stewardship—of places, people, and gospel opportunity. Cities matter because souls matter. Neighborhoods matter because families matter. Churches matter because Christ established them as His enduring witness.
Paterson reminds us that the church must recover:
Long-term presence over short-term success
Theological confidence over cultural accommodation
Public faith expressed with humility and conviction
Revitalization is not reactionary. It is restorative.
The Church’s Future Is Not Determined by Demographics Alone
Data helps us see patterns, but it does not dictate outcomes. Decline is not destiny. While demographics shape mission fields, they do not nullify the power of faithful gospel labor.
While demographic data helps identify trends, it does not determine spiritual outcomes, a distinction reflected in both the data limitations and interpretive cautions outlined in the appendix.⁵
History is filled with moments when the church flourished precisely where it seemed weakest—when conviction outlasted comfort, and presence outlived popularity.
Paterson is a warning only if ignored. It is a gift if heeded.
A Call to Pastors and Churches
The question before us is not whether cities will change—they always do. The question is whether the church will remain:
Will we stay when ministry becomes harder?
Will we disciple when culture no longer reinforces belief?
Will we preach with clarity when confidence is unfashionable?
Will we love our cities enough to suffer with them?
Holding ground does not require heroism. It requires faithfulness.
Hope That Remains
The story of Paterson is unfinished. Churches still stand. Gospel witness still exists. The Lord of the church has not abdicated His throne, nor has He withdrawn His promise.
Christ builds His church—not always according to our timelines or expectations, but always according to His purpose.
The call before us is not to reclaim a past that cannot be recreated, but to stand faithfully where God has placed us now.
Cities will only remain gospel-shaped if churches are willing to stay gospel-anchored.
That is the ground we are called to keep.
If you’re concerned about urban gospel witness, see “Northeast Church Closures — Empty Pews, Quiet Steeples.”
For a pastoral perspective on research, see “How Pastors Can Read and Use Research for Church Revitalization.”
____________________________
Footnotes:
See Appendix: Religious and Demographic Data Sources for the Paterson Case Study, Table A1.
Ibid., Tables A1–A3.
Ibid., Interpretive Summary.
Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA), U.S. Religion Census, county-level datasets.
See Methodological Considerations in the Data Appendix below.
Data Appendix:
Religious and Demographic Data Sources for the Paterson Case Study
This appendix provides the demographic and religious adherence data referenced throughout this case study. Because the United States Census does not directly measure religious affiliation, the figures below rely on widely recognized secondary data sources used in sociological and missiological research.
Primary Data Sources
Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA)
(Drawing primarily from the U.S. Religion Census conducted by the Association of Statisticians of American Religious Bodies)
U.S. Census Bureau (population, ethnicity, immigration, and housing data)
Pew Research Center (statewide religious landscape surveys)
County-level aggregations and summaries derived from ARDA-published datasets
City-level religious data is often unavailable or statistically unreliable; therefore, Passaic County data is used as the closest and most responsible proxy for understanding the religious environment of Paterson, New Jersey.
Table A1: Religious Adherence Estimates — Passaic County, New Jersey (2020)
Faith Tradition | Estimated Adherents | Percent of County Population |
Catholic | ~183,000 | ~34–35% |
Muslim | ~61,500 | ~11–12% |
Non-Denominational Christian | ~12,000 | ~2–3% |
Assemblies of God | ~7,800 | ~1–2% |
Orthodox Jewish | ~8,000 | ~1–2% |
Other Christian Traditions (combined) | ~40,000+ | ~7–8% |
Other Religions (combined) | ~10,000+ | ~2% |
Total Religious Adherents | ~314,000 | ~60% |
Notes:
“Adherents” refers to individuals affiliated with a religious body, not weekly attendance.
Protestant Christian adherence is fragmented across many denominations, none of which individually represent a dominant share.
Islam represents a significant minority presence at the county level.
Table A2: New Jersey Religious Landscape (Adult Population Estimates)
Category | Approximate Percentage |
Christian (All Traditions) | ~59% |
Catholic (subset of Christian) | ~33% |
Religiously Unaffiliated | ~29% |
Muslim | ~2–3% |
Jewish, Hindu, Buddhist, Other | ~4–5% |
Source: Pew Research Center, Religious Landscape Study (New Jersey)
Notes:
While Christianity remains the majority statewide, urban counties such as Passaic show greater religious diversity.
The “unaffiliated” category has grown significantly over recent decades, particularly among younger adults.
Table A3: Selected Demographic Indicators — Passaic County
Indicator | Estimate |
Total Population (2020) | ~524,000 |
Hispanic / Latino (any race) | ~43% |
Non-Hispanic White | ~37% |
Black or African American | ~11% |
Asian | ~6% |
Foreign-Born Population | ~30% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Notes:
Immigration patterns strongly influence religious diversification.
Religious institutions with strong family and community cohesion often correlate with immigrant settlement patterns.
Interpretive Summary
The data presented here supports the central claim of this case study: Paterson’s current religious diversity emerged within the context of long-term Christian institutional decline rather than sudden displacement or coercion. The patterns observed align with similar trends in other American urban centers and underscore the importance of sustained gospel presence for long-term ecclesiastical vitality.
______________
Methodological Considerations
This case study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining descriptive and interpretive methodologies commonly used in urban ministry and religious sociology. Because religious affiliation is not collected by the U.S. Census Bureau, this study relies on secondary datasets from the Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA), including the U.S. Religion Census, alongside Census demographic indicators.
County-Level Proxy
Because ARDA and the U.S. Religion Census report primarily at the county level, Passaic County data is used to contextualize Paterson’s religious environment responsibly.
Trend Interpretation
This case study emphasizes patterns over time rather than isolated figures. The data consistently reflects:
Declining Protestant Christian adherence
Stable or declining Catholic affiliation
Growth or sustained strength among non-Christian religious communities
Increasing religious unaffiliation
Limitations
Religious adherence does not equal belief or attendance.
Informal or unregistered congregations may be undercounted.
City-specific conclusions must be drawn cautiously.
The purpose of this methodology is not predictive certainty, but responsible trend analysis in service of ecclesiastical reflection and revitalization.
Charts to provide documentation of trends
Interpretive Summary – Local Religious Adherence per Congregation (Passaic County, 1980–2020)
This chart shows the average number of adherents per congregation for Christian, Jewish, and Muslim communities in Passaic County over 40 years. It is important to note that these numbers reflect per-church averages, not total membership.
Christianity:
While the total number of Christian adherents grew from ~217,000 in 1980 to ~314,000 in 2020, the number of congregations grew faster (from 207 to 338).
As a result, the average adherents per church slightly decreased from ~1,048 to ~928.
Nuance: The line may look flat or slightly declining, but it does not indicate a loss of members, only a redistribution of growth across more churches.
Judaism:
The Jewish community shows a dramatic rise in adherence per congregation from 2010 (~533) to 2020 (~1,600).
This spike is caused by a reduction in the number of congregations from 15 to 5 while the total adherents remained roughly the same (~8,000).
Nuance: The chart does not mean the Jewish population tripled; rather, fewer congregations now serve the same community, resulting in larger average congregational size.
Islam:
Muslims first appear in the data in 2000, with strong growth in both total adherents and number of congregations.
Adherence per congregation increased from ~1,868 in 2000 to ~2,677 in 2020.
Nuance: Unlike the Jewish line, the growth reflects both population increase and the establishment of additional congregations, showing a true rise in local community size.
Bottom Line for Readers:
Christianity remains numerically dominant, but the slight drop in per-church adherence shows that local churches are spreading membership across more congregations.
Jewish congregations are now serving fewer but larger congregations, creating a spike in average adherence.
Islam is rapidly growing, both in total members and per congregation, signaling an emerging community presence in Passaic County.
These nuances highlight that average adherents per congregation can behave differently than total membership, and understanding both is key for church leaders, community planners, and anyone examining religious trends.
Religious traditions in Passaic County - Percent of Total Population (1980-2020
This figure illustrates religious affiliation trends in Passaic County, New Jersey, from 1980 through 2020, using data from the U.S. Religion Census (ARDA). The data reflects the percentage of the county population affiliated with major religious traditions over a forty-year period.
Key Observations from the Data:
Protestant Christianity (Evangelical, Mainline, and Black Protestant) shows a consistent overall decline as a percentage of the county population across the four decades.
Mainline Protestant affiliation declines sharply from approximately the late 1970s–1980s through 2020.
Evangelical Protestant affiliation remains comparatively small and does not experience sustained growth during this period.
Catholic affiliation remains the largest single religious tradition in Passaic County, showing relative stability despite modest fluctuations.
Islam shows the most pronounced growth, increasing steadily from a negligible percentage in 1980 to a significant share of the county population by 2020.
Judaism, Orthodox Christianity, and other non-Christian traditions remain present at smaller but stable levels, contributing to increased religious pluralism.
Interpretive Significance:
This longitudinal county-level data demonstrates that the changing religious landscape of Paterson and its surrounding communities is not the result of a sudden shift, but rather the culmination of decades-long trends. The decline of historic Protestant presence, coupled with the stability of Catholicism and the growth of Islam, provides essential context for understanding contemporary religious, cultural, and civic dynamics within the city.
Importantly, this data does not indicate the absence of Christian witness, but rather a reduction in cultural and numerical dominance, creating a vacuum in which other religious systems have expanded and organized more visibly within the public square.
Source:
Association of Religious Data Archives (ARDA), U.S. Religion Census, Passaic County, NJ (1980–2020).
The national Pew data provide important context for the local trends observed in Passaic County. Over the past four decades, the percentage of Christians in the United States declined from approximately 78% to 62%, reflecting a shrinking share of the adult population. Jewish adults have remained small and relatively stable at around 2%, while Muslim adults grew from 0.4% to 1.2%—a modest but notable increase.
Taken together, these figures show that, although Christianity remains numerically dominant, its national share is decreasing, while Islam and other minority religions are gradually growing. This broader national pattern helps interpret the local data: Christian stability in Passaic County exists within a context of relative national decline, and the growth of Islam locally reflects the trends seen across the country, highlighting a slowly shifting religious landscape.
Here is what the chart looks like when combining the data.
Although Christianity remains numerically dominant in Passaic County, faster relative growth among Muslim adherents—mirroring national trends—indicates a long-term shift in religious composition rather than a resurgence of Christian influence.
Absent a change in trajectory, Christianity’s relative share will continue to erode while Islam captures a greater portion of the religious landscape.
This chart shows the national share of Jewish and Muslim adults in the U.S. from 1980 to 2020. Note that while the lines appear low compared with the large Christian majority, they represent small populations growing at different rates. The Muslim share increased from 0.4% in 1980 to 1.2% by 2010 — a tripling in relative size — before leveling off slightly at 1.2% in 2020. Jewish share remained relatively stable, decreasing slightly from 2% to 1.7% over the same period. The apparent flatness of the Muslim line after 2010 is a result of the chart’s small y-axis range (0–3%) and rounding of data; it does not indicate a decline. Even small increases in minority religious populations can be significant when compared with slower-growing or declining majority groups.
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